The Art of Doing Nothing

Congress and the Politics of Not Providing Military Aid

U.S. Department of Defense

I’m not going to say much of anything new here, but I do want to complain about the likely future of American military assistance for Ukraine considering there isn’t really anything else I can do about it. Namely, I think that at best we’re going to see a cut to aid in 2024, and then a cessation of aid in the run-up to the 2024 election.

To start, I think it’s worth pointing out where we stand now. The United States has essentially nothing left to give and aid shipments have dropped off precipitously. Instead of providing much-needed armor and IFVs, we’re now mostly relegated to providing limited shipments of ammunition to keep the Ukrainians afloat.

This isn’t going to change anytime soon since thanks to yet another continuing resolution, we won’t be debating the budget again until January. We’re going to go another 2 1/2 months before we can (hopefully) pass an actual budget. When it does come, I’ve become increasingly convinced that it’s going to signal the effectual end of actual American assistance to Ukraine.

It’s fairly obvious at this point that the hard right caucus in the House of Representatives wants to see a cessation of all forms of aid—considering they’ve openly said as much. My sense from the rank-and-file MAGA supporters is a general indifference leading towards a willingness to accede to the demands of the far right to cut or cease aid to Ukraine.

The best sign of this I think is in Mike Johnson’s insistence upon tying any potential Ukraine aid to a larger GOP budgetary package that includes domestic demands that are on their face unpalatable to Democrats. It’s the central reason this aid is being tied to this package, but military assistance to Israel isn’t.

This is obviously not going to be the final version of this bill—Democrats simply will not accept all of these domestic issues. There will have to be negotiation, and things will have to be dropped. I suspect that foreign assistance will go before domestic cuts are made, as bleak as it is to say, it’s just less politically toxic.

I should also say, Republicans have leverage in this. They’ve shown no real regard for the actual business of government, and considering we’ve had two continuing resolutions at this point—seem more than willing to permanently paralyze our government at a structural level until the 2024 election.

They’re probably willing to negotiate and accept not having to cut domestic spending, considering that most voters when asked don’t actually want any of these programs cut, but are much more likely to press for their foreign policy priorities.

The two most contentious of these issues are spending more money at the southern U.S. border, and providing support to Ukraine. Of these two, among GOP voters, providing arms to Ukraine is now wildly unpopular. Conversely, spending on security for the southern border is not only wildly popular with the GOP base, but it’s broadly popular in the entire American electorate.

What I’m getting at here is that speaking purely from the domestic political environment of the United States—military aid for Ukraine has become the odd man out. It’s not that I think this is good or anything, I think this is a complete disaster for anyone who deeply cares about the United States helping a fellow democratic nation.

The way the current GOP proposal is structured makes me believe there’s become a scenario more likely than not where the DoD is left with only a marginal ability to assist Ukraine with ammunition throughout 2024, and depending on how the 2024 election plays out—nothing after that.

There is bipartisan support in the Senate for continuing robust assistance to Ukraine of course, but they’re subject to the much more populist demands of the House Republicans who are going to deliver them a bill with extreme demands across the board. Despite wanting to continue assistance—I see the same fundamental problem arising there—Ukraine aid is going to be left as the unwanted child.

In a negotiation, you can’t get everything that you want and unfortunately, I think it’s becoming increasingly apparent in the current structural environment of Congress that Ukraine aid is going to be the most pain-free option to trade away for other domestic priorities.

I don’t really have any proposed solutions to fix this. I mean you can call your representatives all you want, but they’re answering to their constituents more broadly. Not only that but in an election year, political leaders are going to be even more hesitant to stick their neck out on an issue that has become increasingly unpopular with their base.

Realistically, I think the Europeans are going to have to be the ones that carry on support for Ukraine. They’ve made significant contributions already—and have given more aid collectively at this point than the United States has—but they have their own host of growing domestic discontents they have to manage.

Moreover, the United States provides a lot of the political backing that backstops European contributions, and if we pull out it will become an even more difficult task. If we aren’t contributing anything to Ukrainian assistance, our diplomatic initiatives for collective European efforts are going to ring hollow.

I realize I have nothing really positive to add here, or any hopeful notes, but that’s largely because I don’t think there is anything in the near term that can help. Hopefully, the Democratic party will win overwhelmingly in 2024, otherwise, there’s not much else that can be said.