This isn't the worst case scenario. The worst-case scenario is that the things you describe happen and the public loves it. No reason why RW media can't radicalize the average citizen into supporting it, especially if Trump succeeds in quashing dissent from the press and elites via coercion.
And don't forget the war option. If anyone can start a war and turn it in his favor, it's Trump. We could get a polycrisis that Americans have no reference for. I agree that the bad scenarios aren't the most likely, but I'm not sure 30% is a bad bet for hell or worse.
This isn't the worst case scenario. The worst-case scenario is that the things you describe happen and the public loves it. No reason why RW media can't radicalize the average citizen into supporting it, especially if Trump succeeds in quashing dissent from the press and elites via coercion.
And don't forget the war option. If anyone can start a war and turn it in his favor, it's Trump. We could get a polycrisis that Americans have no reference for. I agree that the bad scenarios aren't the most likely, but I'm not sure 30% is a bad bet for hell or worse.