Good post! I had a question though: with the violent crackdowns on HK and the complete stripping of democratic rights there (and thus complete breach of the treaty with the UK) as well as myriad petty clashes over perceived slights to their sovereignty and territorial integrity (throwing a shitfit about a shirt list Macau as a nation for example), it seems like Xi is hyperfixated on making sure there is no perceived alternative to his method of rule. Wouldn’t that create pressure to attack Taiwan, since they are a highly visible democratic alternative?
I mean it's complicated in my opinion tbh. The crackdown on HK I sort of mentally categorize as falling under the myopic drive towards domestic stability above anything else. They are absolutely fixated on the notion of "sovereignty" but that's been something they've been fixated on for decades now. You can go back and read their statements about the SCS in the '90s and they're basically indistinguishable from contemporary stuff.
It's not that I don't think they're serious about these problems...I just don't really see what they've done that would distinguish anything now as having pushed their decision now to "fuck it lets go".
I’ve just been thinking that despite all the loud rumblings, authoritarianism globally seems to be weakening (All Hail Saint Frank) and i think both Putin and Xi’s behavior reflects this. So i think Taiwan being a Liberal Democracy right on Xi’s doorstep is becoming more of an existential problem for Xi than it used to be. That’s just the vibe i’m getting though
I mean we'd have to see, but really I think my bigger point is that we'd actually have to see any sort of real shift that they're making that move. Right now? I just don't really see it.
For that to be true I suppose China would have to then turn its eyes on Singapore, Malaysia, hell even S Korea and Japan, if he was truly having an existential crisis of that kind. There are ready alternatives to his rule he just better pray the government never has a crisis at all ever since so much of the CCPs legitimacy is pegged to decisive crisis response.
Which I would argue a war that China can’t 100% win would also qualify as a challenge to chinese Institutional Thinking
Basically yeah, so I don’t think it’ll end well for Xi regardless. He’s not capable of the adaptation necessary to continue the primacy of the CCP in China and this will result in China changing again.
Good post! I had a question though: with the violent crackdowns on HK and the complete stripping of democratic rights there (and thus complete breach of the treaty with the UK) as well as myriad petty clashes over perceived slights to their sovereignty and territorial integrity (throwing a shitfit about a shirt list Macau as a nation for example), it seems like Xi is hyperfixated on making sure there is no perceived alternative to his method of rule. Wouldn’t that create pressure to attack Taiwan, since they are a highly visible democratic alternative?
I mean it's complicated in my opinion tbh. The crackdown on HK I sort of mentally categorize as falling under the myopic drive towards domestic stability above anything else. They are absolutely fixated on the notion of "sovereignty" but that's been something they've been fixated on for decades now. You can go back and read their statements about the SCS in the '90s and they're basically indistinguishable from contemporary stuff.
It's not that I don't think they're serious about these problems...I just don't really see what they've done that would distinguish anything now as having pushed their decision now to "fuck it lets go".
I’ve just been thinking that despite all the loud rumblings, authoritarianism globally seems to be weakening (All Hail Saint Frank) and i think both Putin and Xi’s behavior reflects this. So i think Taiwan being a Liberal Democracy right on Xi’s doorstep is becoming more of an existential problem for Xi than it used to be. That’s just the vibe i’m getting though
I mean we'd have to see, but really I think my bigger point is that we'd actually have to see any sort of real shift that they're making that move. Right now? I just don't really see it.
Fair point, the screeching around Taiwan isn’t grounded in any kind of reality, no matter what Cheeseboy Nepobaby says
For that to be true I suppose China would have to then turn its eyes on Singapore, Malaysia, hell even S Korea and Japan, if he was truly having an existential crisis of that kind. There are ready alternatives to his rule he just better pray the government never has a crisis at all ever since so much of the CCPs legitimacy is pegged to decisive crisis response.
Which I would argue a war that China can’t 100% win would also qualify as a challenge to chinese Institutional Thinking
Basically yeah, so I don’t think it’ll end well for Xi regardless. He’s not capable of the adaptation necessary to continue the primacy of the CCP in China and this will result in China changing again.